US beans will focus on listed soybean meal market or opportunities

Since September, international soybeans have seen a wave of profit taking after reaching a record high. The November contract fell from 1,789 cents to 1,700 cents. The spot price of coastal soybean meal dropped from 4490-4760 yuan/ton to 4330. -4520 yuan / ton, the downstream companies to partially replenish stocks, but still more to buy with the use of. On September 12, USDA released its latest monthly supply and demand report.

First of all, the adjustment of soybean data in this report. The yield is expected to be 35.3 bushels per acre, which is basically the same as the market's previous forecast. The output is 2.634 billion pounds. The larger adjustment is the correction to the old inventory, and in August 2011. The estimate of the carryover inventory in FY12 is 145 million pounds, which is adjusted to 130 million pounds this time, and the new inventory carryover is maintained at 115 million pounds, which is higher than the market expectation of 106 million pounds. The US soybeans closed up 44.25 cents on the night and the November contract settled at 1745.75 cents. The market commented that the USDA lowered its production forecast and investors lifted more arbitrage operations for corn and soybeans, supporting the soybean market, and breaking the technical characteristics after the 20-day moving average. Buying speeds up.

In the end is the outer disk to go? The author did not dare to draw a conclusion, but from a personal point of view, the main reason is that the author has not found the conditions and factors that support the new height of the beans for the time being. So is it possible to say that high-priced soybeans inhibit demand? With the upcoming launch of US new beans, lack of speculation in the market and more prospects for sowing in South America, more profit-taking will be triggered, resulting in a sharp drop in prices.

First of all, from the forecast of soybean arrival in Hong Kong in recent months, there will be no significant decline in domestic soybean shipments in Hong Kong in September. It is estimated that soybeans in Hong Kong will total more than 8.2 million tons in Hong Kong in two months. Still huge, the market did not see a clear drop in demand as the US soybeans reached a new high. Throughout September, the following time still needs to focus on the harvesting of US soybeans. The planting of South American soybeans is about to start, and whether there will be more extreme weather conditions, and El Nino seems to have no signs. The latest 30-day SOI mean value has risen to + The neutral value of 0.8 comes up.

Recently, I visited a number of aquatic product companies in eastern China, and the amount of added soybean meal was relatively limited. The overall purchase of soybean meal was bought and used, and the most heard voice was that the price of soybean meal was already so high that it should have fallen. It is not so much an opinion as it is an expectation. The author believes that the large number of US beans may be an opportunity to market, not much space, about 100 cents or so, now is still recommended feed companies to buy with the use, if the spot more than 300 yuan callback, may wish to do some inventory, the fourth quarter was relatively prosperous season soybean meal demand and supply is not the case substantially increased, it is still not recommended too bearish.